Cristabel's crystal ball
An end-of-year addition to the vaunted Opp Now team, local grad student Cristabel Cruz offers our first in a series on What To Expect in The Coming Year. Welcome, Cristabel, and welcome, 2026.
"I haven't seen you in awhile. Where you been?"
"On vacation."
"Oh, where?"
"Club Elmwood."
That's a snippet I heard around 9pm on New Year's Eve between the barmaid and a customer at Alex's 49er Inn. A vintage SJ dive bar, you can find Alex's next to the Hustler store in the shopping center at Bascom and W. San Carlos.
Key fact: when you ask for NA beer at Alex's, they say they don't have any.
There's a metaphor hiding in there somewhere, but let me put my PBR to the side and get down to business. What should SV folks be expecting in 2026?
Here are my top 5:
1.) Taxes, taxes, and more taxes.
Don't be fooled: the county and Dem Establishment put a lot of money behind Measure A and Fligor for Assessor and won each time. I am 1000% confident the lesson they have learned is: if we spend enough we can muscle new taxes through. Anticipate Max Tax Mahan & Co., along with regional entities (MTC, etc.) calling the same play, asking for VTA, parks, and other bailouts.
2.) Growing gap between electeds and populace.
Think about this: Something like 40% of the county voted against Measure A. But on the SJ City Council, only one CM voted against it (G. Casey D10). That's 9%. You do the math.
3.) Mahan will play Hamlet. Over and over.
Christopher calls it "invoking the 'but' clause." My mom says it's "making excuses." My English teacher in high school called it "The Hamlet Syndrome." They're all talking about our clever mayor's mannered rhetoric of appearing indecisive, torn by conflicting impulses, even as he inevitably votes with fellow Dems to raise taxes, grow gov't, and marginalize contrary voices. Look for Mayor Matt to continue to mimic The Prince of Denmark, and throw rhetorical crumbs at the fiscally responsible crowd even while voting consistently against them.
4.) Moderates will pivot left.
Pay attention to Mamdami in NY. The Dem party nationally is experiencing one of its time-honored journeys into socialism, and local pols (especially those seeking higher office) will notice, and dump their "pragmatic" and "moderate" stances. Look for remnant electeds, even those with conservative impulses, on the SJ and Santa Clara Council to join the leftward jaunt.
5.) The beatings will continue until morale improves.
Look for local media, esp the Merc and Spotlight, to keep on gaslighting local readers regarding the failure of local homelessness strategies, the failure to build more housing, the failure to make SV and SJ affordable, the failure to make our streets safe, and the failure to clean up local government's fiscal craziness. In case you hadn't noticed, Prop 50 happened in our fair valley a long time ago, and Silicon Valley is pretty much a one-party state. The local Left has nobody but themselves to blame when things go south, so they will--surprise!--say "progress is being made" so there's nothing to blame anybody about.
Happy New Year!
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