Demography is destiny: what happens when young people flee?

 

Peter Church / Cassandra House Signage

 

Economic pressures compel under-40 residents to find greener (and cheaper) pastures in the South and Southwest. The impact on Silicon Valley politics and economics will be substantial. 

  • The median age for a resident of San Francisco is roughly 40 years old. The median age for Santa Clara County is 38.1 years old.

  • California’s wealthy boomers are staying put as young families head for the exits, fleeing the anti-growth politics that make the state increasingly unaffordable.

  • The state’s aging population reflects an economy that—saddled with extremely high house prices—serves most residents poorly and is spurring younger people, particularly those with children, to head for the exits.

  • The reasons for California’s demographic decline are complex. At the top of the list is an economy that now produces few higher-wage jobs beyond those benefitting the tech elite. The state may be home to four of the world’s seven trillion-dollar companies and the most billionaires, but it lags in creating opportunities for everyone else.

  • The effects of the demographic drain are being felt in California schools. Between 2019 and 2023, enrollment fell by 325,000 students, or 5 percent, the largest numeric decline and among the highest percentage declines in the country. 

  • If boomers want to hold onto their hard-earned fortunes—let alone see their descendants prosper—they will have to embrace the kind of policies on energy, housing, and growth that allowed them to achieve the California dream.
    --Joel Kotkin, City Journal

Follow Opportunity Now on Twitter @svopportunity

We prize letters from our thoughtful readers. Typed on a Smith Corona. Written in longhand on fine stationery. Scribbled on a napkin. Hey, even composed on email. Feel free to send your comments to us at opportunitynowsv@gmail.com or (snail mail) 1590 Calaveras Ave., SJ, CA 95126. Remember to be thoughtful and polite. We will post letters on an irregular basis on the main Opp Now site.

christopher escher