Plan Bay Area promises the Moon. It could just be a costly way to hurt Planet Earth.
To fix housing, transit, the economy, and the environment, unelected regional bodies are pushing through Plan Bay Area 2050+. But in a recent Substack post, SHIFT-Bay Area argues the scheme is based on fantastical population assumptions and rife with environmental insults; moreover, the planners can’t explain where the money will come from.
Our Bay Area region genuinely needs a coordinated plan: cities and counties face “fiscal cliffs” and structural deficits, the climate crisis is intensifying wildfires, floods, and droughts, and both federal and state budgets are under pressure. Meanwhile, rapid innovation in energy, telecommunications, and transportation could help — if policymakers allowed them to.
Unfortunately, the Plan deals successfully with almost none of these issues. It is fixated on outdated transit strategies and inflated housing targets while leaving its own proposals unfunded. Beyond that, most of its environmental impacts are officially “significant and unavoidable.” It offers no credible assessment of better alternatives or of urgent challenges outside the narrow focus of the Transit and Housing Industrial Complex (THIC).
Fantasy Population Growth. The Plan assumes population increases more than 12 times higher than credible forecasts, even as the Census reports California’s population shrinking by 200,000 the past five years. Inflated projections drive wasteful megaprojects — like BART’s $3.5 billion purchase of 1,129 rail cars when only about 400 are needed --- amid falling ridership and a fiscal crisis.
A $1.5 Trillion Mirage. Over 25 years, the Plan piles on new tolls, mileage fees, parking taxes, and a proposed sales‑tax hike — yet funding still falls short by roughly $100,000 per resident, or $4,000 per person per year.
Environmental Evasions. The Plan admits the majority of its environmental impacts are “significant and unavoidable,” then dumps the burden of solutions on local governments.
Read the whole thing here.
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