Opinion: SJ's upzoning plan may be an affordability chimera
Families and Homes SJ suggests that the city's vast "Missing Middle" zoning recommendation is a leap in the dark--characterized by lots of wishful thinking and unproven assumptions.
San José needs more housing, but before approving the Planning Department's Missing Middle Recommendation, the City should demonstrate that it will achieve its intended goals.
The proposal would permanently increase residential density throughout the city, yet several critical questions remain unanswered.
Will It Increase Homeownership?
More housing does not automatically mean more homeowners. Duplexes, fourplexes, and small apartment buildings can remain under single or corporate ownership as rental properties. The City has not shown how the proposal will expand homeownership opportunities rather than simply increasing rental housing.
Homeownership remains one of the primary ways families build generational wealth, financial security, and long-term community stability. If new housing is built primarily as rental property, many families may lose opportunities to build equity and pass wealth to future generations.
Will It Improve Affordability?
Increasing zoning capacity does not guarantee lower housing prices. Research has found that high land, construction, and financing costs can make Missing Middle projects expensive to build, particularly in high-cost markets like San José. In fact, an economic study (report starts on pg. 20) completed in 2021 concluded that four and eight plex units per lot do not make housing more affordable.
The City should estimate the expected rents, sales prices, and affordability of the housing this proposal is likely to produce.
The City Should Complete the Analysis First
Before adopting a permanent citywide zoning change, the City should answer several basic questions:
• How many projects are financially feasible?
• How many units are likely to be built?
• How many will be owner-occupied versus rentals?
• Will the proposal meaningfully improve affordability?
• What are the long-term fiscal and infrastructure impacts?
These are fundamental planning questions. Until they are answered with evidence, the City cannot demonstrate that the Missing Middle Recommendation will deliver the affordable homeownership opportunities and long-term community benefits that residents have been promised.--Families and Homes SJ
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