Op-ed: California’s “Transit Industrial Complex” is back—and it’s bankrolling SB 63
Bay Area voters are being sold a new story: save transit, prevent “catastrophic” service cuts, keep the region moving. That’s the public pitch behind SB 63, the “Connect Bay Area” sales-tax campaign heading for the November 2026 ballot. So says Los Altos Institution fellow and wunderkind contributor Athan Joshi in an Opportunity Now exclusive op-ed.
It’s being marketed under the friendly banner of “Connect Bay Area,” but the instrument is blunt: yet another regressive tax layered directly onto most things residents buy.
SB 63 authorizes a 14-year regional sales tax across Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara counties, 1% in San Francisco and 0.5% in the rest to generate almost $1 billion per year. If you layer the proposed SB 63 on top of Measure A which was passed in the November 2025 ballot, all Santa Clara County cities would break the 10% sales-tax barrier with Campbell touching 11%.
What’s missing from SB 63 though, is any serious attempt at reform. There are no enforceable cost controls, no labor flexibility requirements, no consolidation mandates, and no requirement that transit agencies right-size service to actual demand. Instead, the measure locks in a new revenue stream before structural problems are addressed.
California has a well-established Transit Industrial Complex, a tight network of transit agencies, construction firms, consultants, unions, and advocacy nonprofits that all benefit from higher spending, regardless of performance. SB 63 is the newest monetization strategy for that network.
A January 2026 Connect Bay Area press release boasts nearly $3 million raised to launch signature gathering, with early donors including HNTB, Jacobs, HDR, WSP, Arup North America, Fehr & Peers, and T.Y. Lin. These are the very engineering, planning, and contracting firms that thrive on complex, consultant-heavy public works. These companies are working on costly and dubious projects such as the BART extension to San Jose ($12.75 billion) and the extension of Caltrain to the Salesforce Transit Center ($8.25 billion).
The same donor list also features labor unions: SEIU 1021, ATU Local 1555, and multiple AFSCME locals. Transit labor unions are especially central. SB 63 promises ongoing operating subsidies, which protect payrolls and work rules even as ridership remains well below pre-pandemic levels.
California voters aren’t choosing between SB 63 and “catastrophic cuts.” They are choosing between continuing a spending model that has already failed or demanding accountability before approving another tax hike.
If SB 63 passes, the incentive to reform disappears for another generation. And the same interests funding the campaign today will be first in line for the proceeds tomorrow.
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