☆ Verbica: A Philip K Dick future is underway. Will taxpayers regret it?
In 2026, innovation spurred by Silicon Valley will bring sci-fi closer to reality, suggests Peter Verbica. But as airborne Joby cabs and Amazon drones deliver us from inconvenience, so too might technology help the taxman get creative. The MIT grad & GOP candidate for CA’s 19th congressional district also warns that class divides and ubiquitous surveillance could subordinate the rights of the citizen. An Opportunity Now exclusive look ahead.
“We tend to overestimate change in the short run and underestimate it in the long run.” ~ Roy Amara
Prognostication is no easy task; Nostradamus is an outlier. People can be very right about a trend, but very wrong about the timing of when that trend ultimately takes shape.
Transportation
The multi-level traffic patterns envisioned in Blade Runner have not occurred — at least not yet — but meaningful inroads are occurring which will fundamentally change how we ship goods and commute. Firms such as Joby and Amazon are stakeholders in this change. We already face the emerging reality of autonomous, bot-driven vehicles — not unlike the vision portrayed in the 1990 film Total Recall though thankfully without the retro-carnival styling of the Johnny-Cab.
Taxation Meets Technology
Technology — including GPS, blockchain, and advanced data analytics — will offer tax authorities new and increasingly creative ways to pursue Silicon Valley taxpayers’ hard-won earnings and wealth. GPS makes it technically possible to track and tax economic activity by physical movement, placing not just vehicles on toll roads but even pedestrians within potential tax jurisdiction overlays. Meanwhile, blockchain and the potential of a national digital currency raise serious concerns about financial privacy, and previously unimaginable compliance enforcement tools; activities long considered informal or “gray market” — such as tipping at a carwash, paying day laborers helping move furniture, or a yard sale purchase, may come under the taxman’s scrutiny. A national digital currency, particularly one tied to cancelled exchange windows (recall U.S. silver certificates of our not-so-distant past), could even risk U.S. dollars becoming virtually worthless without proper declaration. These scenarios will garner public debate before such a policy is enacted, but these tax-tracking opportunities are too enticing for governments to ignore.
Surveillance Inroads
Despite rising income inequality, persistent urban poverty, and long-term wage stagnation, Great Britain has maintained crime levels well below what historical models might predict. Many security analysts attribute this stability, in part, to Britain’s expansive surveillance infrastructure which includes ubiquitous CCTV networks and rapidly advancing AI-based tracking analytics. As the Silicon Valley divide between the “haves” and the “have-nots” continues, we should expect pressure for similar surveillance expansion here at home. The contrast between “Big tech” employees replete with stock plans and perks versus paycheck-to-paycheck workers (say in service and retail) underscores the contrast; the imbalance will continue to put stress on our modern society.
These trends will not reach full maturity in 2026, but they are no longer theoretical. They are already underway. The policy choices we make now will determine whether technology ultimately serves citizens — or quietly subordinates them.
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