☆ Rosenberger: will good governance bring a San Francisco comeback?
While New York’s dubious political pivot threatens compounding deterioration of basic civic services, Manhattan Institute fellow Tim Rosenberger argues that SF is enjoying a “quiet return of talent and capital.” But is The City’s “renewed seriousness about law and order” real? An Opportunity Now exclusive 2026 prediction.
Looking ahead to 2026, I’m fundamentally hopeful. I’m long San Francisco in a way that would have sounded contrarian even two years ago. A renewed seriousness about law and order, paired with the quiet return of talent and capital, feels real. By contrast, New York’s recent governmental pivot worries me, not because the city lacks energy, but because governance compounds over time. Cities rise or fall less on vibes than on whether they can keep basic civic promises.
I’m also optimistic about medicine and human flourishing. GLP-1s are a massive and still underappreciated breakthrough. They mean not just weight loss, but cardiovascular health, and freedom from diabetes, addiction, and potentially more. They feel like the opening chapter of a broader story in which chronic disease becomes manageable and productive lifespans extend meaningfully.
Economically, I expect Silicon Valley to have an exceptionally strong year. The AI boom is not a passing fad; it’s an infrastructure shift, and it’s happening fastest where capital, talent, and ambition already cluster. President Trump’s push to make the American economy great again, through energy abundance, regulatory realism, and national confidence, aligns well with this moment. Silicon Valley remains the most important engine in America’s economy.
Finally, I’m encouraged by the uptick in church attendance. People are filling up churches as different as Latin Mass catholic parishes and ultra-progressive Unitarian Universalist congregations. It seems especially meaningful that this is happening at the moment of our country’s 250th birthday. In moments of rapid change, people rediscover first things: community, meaning, and faith. If 2026 brings more seriousness about law, health, work, and spiritual life, it will be a year in which many hopes are realized.
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